经济学人下载:日益强大的汉堡经济学

This alternative recipe, with its adjustment for GDP per person, indicates that the Brazilian real is still badly overcooked, at more than 100% too dear (see lower chart). The euro is 36% overvalued against the dollar, and our beefed-up index also throws useful light on the uncompetitiveness of some economies within the euro area. Comparing burger prices in member countries, the adjusted Big Mac index shows that the “exchange rates” of Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal are all significantly overvalued relative to that of Germany. As for China, the yuan is close to its fair value against the greenback on the adjusted measure, although both are undervalued against many other currencies.

通过这个可供选择的方法，包含了调整后的个人GDP的数据，可以看出巴西货币雷亚尔实在是被炒得过火了。比原料价值高出了100%（见下图）。欧元较美元被高估了36%，由此可见我们的巨无霸指数也揭示出一些欧元区国家缺乏竞争力的现状。比较成员国国家的汉堡价格，调整之后的巨无霸指数显示与德国相比，意大利，西班牙，希腊和葡萄牙的汇率都被高估了。至于中国，在调整后的尺度下看，人民币已经接近与美元的公平价值，尽管两国的汇率和其他许多国家的货币汇率相比还是被低估的。

Super-size jubilee
巨型周年纪念

In trade-weighted terms our calculations suggest that the yuan is a modest 7% undervalued, hardly grounds for a trade war. That is less than previous estimates of a 20-25% undervaluation, based on models that calculate the appreciation in the yuan needed to reduce China’s current-account surplus to a manageable level of, say, 3% of GDP. Even this surplus-based method now points to a smaller yuan undervaluation than it used to because China’s surplus has shrunk. Several private-sector economists forecast that it could drop below 4% of GDP this year, down from nearly 11% in 2007. As its productivity rises over time China must continue to allow its real exchange rate to rise (either through currency appreciation or through inflation), but our new burger barometer suggests that the yuan is not hugely undervalued today.

从贸易加权的角度来看，分析表明人民币只被低估了7%，根本不能成为贸易战的原因。根据模型分析得出，人民币的增值应该将中国的活期储蓄盈余减少至一个可以控制的水平，比如说30%。而就是这个以盈余为评判标准的方法，现在也指出，由于中国的盈余缩减了，人民币的低估值也小了。一些私营企业的经济学家预测，中国今年的GDP的增长幅度将从2007年11%下降至不到4%。因为生产率连年上升，中国必须持续提高自己的实际汇率，（不论是通过增值还是通货膨胀），无论怎样，我们新一轮的汉堡测量表都显示，人民币元没有被太多的低估。

A quarter of a century after its first grilling, burgernomics is still far from perfect, but if adjusted for GDP per person it becomes tastier. All the more reason to keep putting our money where our mouth is.

汉堡经济自第一次问世已经过去25年，它仍有很多不足，不过与个人的GDP值调整后就合理多了。这也让我们有更多的理由去干些实事了。