国际英语新闻：2009: A crucial year for war-torn Iraq

BAGHDAD, Jan. 1 (Xinhua) -- With the beginning of 2009 and the U.S.-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) on the U.S. military presence going into effect on the New Year's day, the war-torn Iraq faces a crucial year for the reviving of the country.

    A series of votes in Iraq this year will re-configure the nation's political map, including the provincial elections on Jan.31, a national referendum on the U.S.-Iraq security pact in July and the nationwide parliamentary elections at the end of the year.

　　PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS IN JANUARY

    The provincial elections will be the first major poll in Iraq since 2005. The elections will bring new blood into local governing bodies and will serve as a dry run for the nationwide parliamentary elections in December.

    More than 400 parties have been registered and more than 14,500candidates will race for 440 open seats on provincial councils.

    "Iraq will witness a dramatic political change during the provincial elections, because many politicians and parties which had not participate in the past elections will join race for the seats this time," said Dr. Sabah N Noori al-Shiek, a professor in Baghdad University.

    As Iraq's fragile security gains grow more sustainable, provincial elections become essential for integrating important social groups into the political process. An important change will be towards much stronger representation for Iraq's Sunni who did not participate the 2005 elections actively but remains a huge influence in the central and western provinces of Iraq.

    NATIONAL REFERENDUM ON SOFA IN JULY

    According to the SOFA recently signed by Washington and Baghdad, all U.S. combat troops must pull out of Iraqi cities by the end of June and leave the country entirely by the end of 2011.

    The security pact has provoked mixed reactions across the country. The national division over the pact is very clear. People express everything from enthusiasm to cynicism about the pact.

    Some people are happy for that a timetable has been set for the departure of U.S. troops. Some call for an immediate withdraw of all U.S. troops from Iraq. Some others do not trust the deal between the U.S. and the current Iraqi government although Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki promised that no secret terms in security pact with U.S.

    Salam al-Shamaa, an Iraqi journalist who lives in exile in Bahrain said, "I have no doubt that any political process under domination of occupying forces would not achieve the interests of Iraqis and the results would serve only the occupiers and their agents."

    If the agreement was rejected in the referendum, Iraqi government will have to cancel it or renegotiate it with the U.S.

    "The national referendum may turn to a turning point in the political process in Iraq, because if the Iraqi people reject the pact, the U.S. will certainly do its endeavor to protect its interests in Iraq. It may intervene the conflict among the Iraqi factions to redirect the political process in a way that would serve its goals," said Professor Shiek.

    NATIONWIDE ELECTIONS IN DECEMBER

    The nationwide elections are widely seen as a major step in forging power-sharing agreements in central governing bodies among Iraq's religious and ethnic communities and are key to lasting peace and reconstruction of the country. The nationwide parliamentary elections will, for the first time in three years, offer Iraqis a chance to choose leaders who they believe represent their interests.

    "The elections in December are expected to have the major impact on Iraq's future at least in the coming four years, because there would be a new parliament and a new government." said Professor Shiek.

    "It is expected that the secular parties would try to come back to lead the political process in the country as the religious parties began to lost popularity among Iraqis after they failed in leading the country during the past years," he added.

    Given lawful and fair elections, there would be substantial changes in the political map in Iraq," said Dr. Nadeem al-Jaberi, a lawmaker and political advisor for the Fadhielah (or Virtue) Party, a Shiite party which breaks up from the umbrella body of United Iraqi Alliance, a major Shiite political bloc.

    "But if there are violations and irregularities in the coming elections, the results will be catastrophic on democracy in Iraq. The Iraqis wouldn't believe ballot boxes any more," he warned.

    The three votes in the year will re-balance political powers from local level to central level and make 2009 a crucial year during the interim period in Iraq. The year will tell whether Iraqis could grasp the chance to end violence and create a lasting peace. If things go well, Iraq could be on its way to ethnic reconciliation, national integrity and reconstruction of the country.