国际英语新闻：U.S. deficit looms, cuts face uphill climb

WASHINGTON, Dec. 4 (Xinhua) -- Efforts to slash the massive U.S. deficit saw their first hurdle this week, as the panel responsible for recommending where and how to make cutbacks could not agree on its own proposal.

A plan to cut the deficit from the deficit commission, a bipartisan panel assembled by U.S. President Barack Obama, failed on Friday to win enough support from its members to force a vote in Congress.

And that underscores recent doubts over Congress' ability to clip the wings of the soaring deficit, which now stands at 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars.

"I think the probability that Congress is going to take significant action on the deficit is almost zero, at least in the immediate future," said Isabel V. Sawhill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

The commission's proposal contained a number of provisions including changes in the tax code and social security. The plan, aimed at cutting a total of 200 billion dollars from military and domestic programs by 2015, marks the start of a longer-term effort to slash the deficit by 4 trillion dollars by 2020.

The failure of this first phase means the clock is ticking for the lame duck Congress to take action, as the session concludes on Dec. 31 and lawmakers' plates are full. Given those time constraints, tough questions will likely be left to the next Congress to figure out once it convenes in January, some analysts said.

The new Congress, however, is likely to face lack of public support for the spending cuts needed to dramatically reduce the deficit, experts said.

In spite of the public drumbeat over the issue and calls for cutbacks, ordinary Americans are against changes in the areas that could significantly affect the deficit, such as Social Security and Medicare. And any cost cutting in those areas is unlikely to pass in the next Congress, said John Fortier, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Indeed, many interest groups will lobby hard to protect these popular programs, making the probability of significant cutbacks very low, Sawhill said.

The next Congress, however, could see some moderate cuts, such as Obama's freeze on pay rises for non-military federal workers seen earlier this week. But given the size of projected future deficits, such cutbacks will not be nearly enough to change the big picture, Fortier said.

THE POLITICS OF DEFICIT CUTTING

While both parties are expressing support for deficit reduction, slashing the biggest spending programs could incur political damage to those making the cuts, as neither party wants to cut politically sensitive programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and the military, experts said.

Some experts also said the only way to cut spending is through a bipartisan approach. But it remains unclear whether the two parties can cast aside their partisan tendencies and cooperate on the issue.

Indeed, many moderate Democrats were voted out in the mid-term elections, leaving a more liberal Democratic Party. And a number of newly elected "Tea Partiers" in the GOP are unlikely to compromise on many issues. Moreover, there are fundamental disagreements over the path to reduction.

Some experts, however, said slashing the mounting deficit may be possible, albeit difficult.

Bolstering that possibility is the fact that come January the House of Representatives will be controlled by Republicans and full of "Tea Partiers," who are keen to cut spending. But cutbacks will have a tougher time passing the Senate, which is still controlled by Democrats.

Notwithstanding, much hinges on presidential leadership -- if the president pushes the issue in Congress, cost cutting is more likely to occur, some experts said.

IS NOW THE RIGHT TIME TO CUT SPENDING?

A third group of experts, however, question whether now is the right time to cut spending, as the recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s is still fragile in the U.S. and unemployment still hovers near the double digits.

Cutbacks in large programs such as Medicare may cause more harm than good, and there are a number of other areas the government could slash, such as inefficient government spending programs or weapons systems that even the Pentagon does not want, some analysts said.

Meanwhile, the House passed an extension on the Bush era tax cuts for the middle class on Thursday, although many experts said the bill is will not likely pass in the Senate.

Taxes are a piece of the deficit puzzle, and a hike on upper earners could pay down part of the national debt, according to some economists and many Democrats. Those on that side of the tax debate also contend that continued tax breaks for higher earners could dig the country even deeper into a debt hole.

Republicans, however, argue that heightened taxes on the wealthy will have little impact in the short term, in efforts to tackle the deficit and limit the ability of small businesses to expand and hire.