现在到欧洲旅游是否划算?

Just how far does the euro have to fall before Europe actually becomes reasonable?

Anyone travelling to the old continent from the U.S. in recent years has learned the hard way how expensive it is. The situation has improved in the last couple of months, thanks to the Greek financial crisis. But it still has a way to go.

Alarm about Greece-and other fiscally unstable countries in Europe-has dragged down the euro sharply. In November, before the crisis struck, you needed about $1.49 to buy one euro. Today you need only about $1.36. That's a 9% cut. Apart from a few brief interludes during the depths of the financial crisis, that's as low as it's been for several years.

What does that mean for you, the would-be traveler? It's a sale-of sorts.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, based in Paris, tracks comparative prices across the major countries. The data are far from perfect. They reflect what residents pay for things, rather than what tourists pay. And they mask enormous regional variations within countries: Just as Tulsa costs less than New York City, so prices in a village in southern Italy are probably a long way below those in Venice. But they offer a rough comparison of how expensive countries are in real, spending-power terms.

As recently as November, when the euro was flying high, the OECD estimated that countries like France, Italy and Germany were about a third more expensive than the U.S. Not all European countries were quite as expensive for the American visitor: Greece only cost about 17% more than the US, while the Czech Republic (which is not part of the eurozone) was actually about 15% cheaper than back home.

Fast-forward two months, and the situation looks somewhat better.

At current exchange rates, places like France will still cost you about 23% more than the U.S., but cheaper countries such as Spain and Greece are now only about 6% more expensive. The Czech Republic's a fifth cheaper than the U.S.

OK, it's a savings. Thanks to the Greek budget crisis, the set eight-course dinner at Paris's famous Taillevent restaurant-sample dish: spelt risotto with frog's legs-will now set you back $517 for two people instead of $570. Wine is extra, but you'll also save $13 on a bottle of Chassange Montrachet 2002-$122, down from $135.

A double room at Venice's Hotel Cipriani, with a balcony overlooking the lagoon, will now cost you a mere $1,800 a night, according to the hotel's Web site. That's down from nearly $1,980 a couple of months ago. As they like to say on infomercials, that's a $180 savings!

You can drink extra champagne in Cannes thanks to the austerity measures in Greece. There's a Billy Wilder movie in here somewhere.

European prices will only break even with the U.S. if the euro falls to about $1.10, says the OECD. But is it going to get there?

Greece's financial crisis may or may not be over. (Members of a labor union just occupied part of the finance ministry to protest against the planned austerity measures. No, it doesn't inspire confidence.)

Julian Jessop, chief international economist at the Capital Economics consultancy in London, sees the euro tumbling to $1.25 by year-end. 'We still think the euro should be a lot lower,' he says. 'We think the outlook for the European economy is a lot worse than for the U.S. And Greece is only a symptom of a wider problem: Does the eurozone make sense as a currency union?' If he's right, you may want to wait to change your money or book a trip.

Goldman Sachs, which has a more favorable fundamental view of the euro, nonetheless scaled back its year-end price target recently to $1.35.

Instead of waiting for the euro to collapse, you might just look for destinations that offer better value than the mainstream. Philip Davies, owner of the upscale boutique travel agency Real Holidays in London, says the best deals are in Greece and Italy.

Prices in Greece have come down a long way in the past few years, he says. If unions keep occupying government offices, they may yet come down further. That sort of thing has a way of putting off the tourists. (Hotwire says that Athens hotel prices have fallen 17% in the past year, and offers a 'five-star hotel' in the city for $82 a night.)

But Mr. Davies's best value tip is Italy-especially inexpensive Siracusa and southeastern Sicily, where, he argues, you also get 'the best Italian food.'