专家:恐怖袭击有章可循

　　The experts point out that if attacks in Iraq, Colombia, Peru and Afghanistan were random, then extremely peaceful and extremely violent days should both be rare. The data, however, show sudden bursts of activity and long quiet periods.

　　专家认为，如果伊拉克、哥伦比亚、秘鲁和阿富汗的袭击事件是随意发生的，那么极端和平时期和极端暴力时期都应该很少。然而，数据显示的却是突然爆发的袭击行动和很长的平静时期。

　　Perhaps this is because such individuals are trying to maximize media coverage. "For an insurgent group," Curry notes, "a successful strike is not one that does the most damage, but one that draws the most attention." Terrorists, therefore, may be waiting for relatively calm moments to strike, in an effort to dominate the news. But the more they all try to break away from the pack, the more they can't escape it. The effect is not so different from many drivers all trying to avoid the same congested roads--only to cluster together.

　　这也许是因为这些人试图最大限度地争取媒体报道。柯里指出：“成功的袭击并非破坏力最大的袭击，而是吸引注意力最多的袭击。”因此，恐怖分子可能会等到相对平静时期发动袭击，争取在新闻报道中占据显著位置。不过，当所有恐怖分子越想避免扎堆发动袭击时，他们就越难避免。这与许多司机都想避开拥堵路段，结果却挤在一起没有什么不同。