经济学家和投资者应该少关注消费者的想法(上)

Finance & economics

财经版块

Trolley problems

购物车问题

Economists and investors should pay less attention to what consumers think.

经济学家和投资者应该少关注消费者的想法。

It is an idea so seemingly obvious as to need little elaboration: people’s feelings influence their behaviour.

这是一个看起来如此显而易见的观点，几乎不需要详细说明：人们的情感会影响他们的行为。

In the economic realm this truism helps explain why surveys of consumer sentiment garner attention.

在经济领域，这一不言而喻的道理解释了为什么消费者情绪调查会受到关注。

They are seen as predictive of spending trends and, by extension, the state of the economy.

这些调查被视为可以对支出趋势进行预测，进而可以对经济状况进行预测。

But pause for a moment to examine how exactly sentiment affects the economy, and the causal chain starts to look sketchier.

但请暂停片刻，看看情绪究竟是如何影响经济的，这时因果关系链就开始变得有些缺环少节了。

At the current juncture, when many think America is on the brink of recession, this oft-cited but fallible leading indicator merits closer inspection.

在当前的关键时刻，许多人认为美国正处于衰退的边缘，这个时候这一经常被引用，但又容易出错的主导性指标就值得被更仔细地审视一番了。

Understanding consumer spending is a holy grail for forecasters, since it accounts for about two-thirds of American GDP.

对于预测者来说，理解消费支出是他们的一大追求，因为消费支出在美国GDP中占比约为三分之二。

Get it right, and the rest of the economy becomes much clearer.

这方面预测对了，经济的其他方面就会变得清晰许多。

But the past couple of years have not been kind to those who focus on sentiment as a guide to future spending.

但对于那些认为情绪指引了未来支出的人来说，过去几年对他们并不友好。

The most closely watched index of consumer sentiment, published monthly by the University of Michigan, plunged to its lowest reading in more than four decades in 2022, and yet consumer spending remained resilient, even after accounting for inflation.

最受关注的消费者情绪指数由密歇根大学每月发布，这一指数在2022年跌至40多年来的最低水平，但即使考虑到通胀因素，消费支出也仍然坚挺。

This year, by contrast, the Michigan gauge has gained ground, and yet other indicators, including bond yields and lending flows, are flashing warning signs.

与之形成对比，今年密歇根指数有所上升，但包括债券收益率和贷款流量在内的其他指标都亮起了警告红灯。

The main explanation for why sentiment has been more of a misleading than a leading economic indicator is that inflation has outweighed much else in consumers’ minds.

消费者情绪之所以更像误导性而非主导性经济指标，主要是因为通胀在消费者心目中的重要性远远超过了其他因素。

To generate their measures, interviewers ask people questions such as whether they think the economy is heading in a good direction and whether they are planning to make big purchases.

为了衡量情绪，采访者会问人们一些问题，比如他们是否认为经济正朝着好的方向发展，他们是否计划进行大笔采购。

Consumers tend to be gloomy when prices soar, as happened last year.

当价格飙升时，消费者往往会感到悲观，就像去年那样。

They give short shrift to slightly more complex factors, such as the big stash of savings many accumulated during the covid-19 pandemic.

他们并不考虑稍微复杂一些的因素，比如许多人在新冠肺炎疫情期间积累了大笔存款。

But the gap between subjective pessimism and objective reasons for greater optimism highlights a quandary.

但主观的悲观情绪和客观的乐观理由之间的差距，凸显出一个两难困境。

The claim is that people’s feelings, whether justified or not, matter.

有一种说法是，人们的感受无论是否合理，都很重要。

When gloomy, they ought to spend less.

当经济低迷时，他们应该减少支出。

If they contradict their own feelings and keep spending, then what exactly is the value of sentiment data?

但如果他们违背自己的感受而继续消费，那么情绪数据到底还有什么价值？

It is a question that has bugged economists since consumer surveys got going after the second world war.

自二战后开始进行消费者调查以来，这个问题一直困扰着经济学家。

In 1955 the Federal Reserve examined re-interviews of respondents, conducted a year after initial surveys, to see whether expectations predicted subsequent expenditures.

1955年，美联储审查了在首次调查一年后，对受访者进行的又一次采访，以确定人们的预期是否预测了后来的支出。

Officials concluded that they did not.

官员们的结论是并没有。

Rather than that being the final word, however, the sentiment industry only expanded over the years.

然而，这个结论并没有一锤定音，反之，情绪调查行业多年来还在不断扩张。

In 1967 the Conference Board introduced its own consumer survey.

1967年，世界大型企业联合会推出了自己的消费者调查。

In the 1980s ABC, a television network, started sponsoring a weekly version, which was later taken over by Bloomberg, a data and media firm.

20世纪80年代，电视网美国广播公司开始赞助每周进行的消费者调查，后来由数据和媒体公司彭博社接手。

Morning Consult, a pollster, launched a daily survey in 2018.

民调机构晨间咨询在2018年推出了每日调查活动。

Evidently, there is a big market appetite for sentiment indices, whatever their flaws.

显然，无论情绪指数有什么缺陷，市场对它的胃口都很大。