我们为什么冒险？ Why do we take risks?

Hello and welcome to 6 Minute English. I‘m Alice...
大家好，欢迎收听六分钟英语。我是爱丽丝。
… and I’m Finn. Hello.
大家好，我是芬恩。
Hello, Finn. You’re off on holiday tomorrow, aren’t you?
你好，芬恩。明天你就要去度假了是吗？
I am and you know, and I’m dreading it. I hate flying!
是的，但我有点害怕。我讨厌坐飞机！
Do you? I didn’t know you had a phobia – and that means a strong and unreasonable fear of something.
是吗？我不知道你还有恐惧症。恐惧症是指对某事物持有强烈的不正常的恐惧。
Well, I don’t think this is a phobia because it isn’t unreasonable. Flying thousands of feet up in the sky in a tin can, you know, that’s not safe!
我认为这不是恐惧症，因为这并不是不正常的。飞机就像是一个易拉罐，在几千米的高空中飞行，这很不安全。
Flying is safer than you think, Finn. It’s much riskier to drive or cycle to work. And, actually, risk taking is the subject of today’s show!Risk means the chances of something bad happening. For example, did you knowthat your chance of being knocked off your bicycle and killed during a one-mile journey is the same as your chances of winning the lottery?
飞行比你想象的安全，芬恩。开车或骑自行车上班比这危险得多。事实上今天的主题就是冒险。风险是指不好的事情发生的可能性。例如，你知道吗？一英里的路程中你从自行车上摔下来致死的可能性和你中彩票的可能性一样大。
You know Alice, I didn’t know that.
好吧，我不知道。
And this leads me on to our quiz question for today: What are the odds … what are the chances of either of these two things happening? Is it…a) 1 in 4 million?b) 1 in 14 million?Or c) 1 in 400 million?
这也是今天的问题：这两件事情发生的概率是多大？a)四百万分之一?b) 一千四百万分之一?还是 c) 四亿分之一?
I have no idea.I’ll go with the big number: 1 in 400 million, c).
我也不知道，就选最大的那个数字吧，c) 四亿分之一。
OK. So we’ll find out later if you’re right or wrong later on. Now let’s listen to Andreas Wilkey, a psychologist at Clarkson University in New York, talking about why we’re bad at assessing risk.
好的，之后我们再看你回答得是否正确。现在，我们听听纽约克拉克森大学心理学家Andreas Wilkey解释我们为什么不善于评估风险。
People typically fear anything which is small probability but it’s extremely catastrophic if it were to happen… Think about dying in a plane crash, think about a nuclear meltdown from the nearby power plant.Recently we have another increase in these birds’ virus outbreaks in South Korea. People read about that. And they may pay a lot of attention to that in the news but they may forget to get their flu shot.
人们通常很害怕小概率事件的发生，因为一旦发生就是毁灭性的灾难。比如死于空难，比如附近电厂发生核泄漏。最近韩国又爆发了禽流感。人们看到这些信息。他们也许会密切关注这些新闻但是却不记得打流感疫苗。
That was Andreas Wilkey from Clarkson University. And we heard that a small probability of something happening means it’s unlikely to happen. But we worry about big or catastrophic events such as catching bird flu or dying in a plane crash because we have a gut reaction to them– in other words, we react emotionally. A catastrophic event is something that causes a huge amount of damage and suffering.
上述是克拉克森大学Andreas Wilkey的看法。小概率事件是指不太可能发生的事件。但是我们担心大事件或灾难性事件的发生，例如得禽流感或死于飞机失事，因为我们有一种本能反应，换句话说我们的情感反应。灾难性事件是指造成大量伤亡的事件。
And it’s often because of media coverage– for example, watching the news and reading the newspapers– that it can be difficult for us to understand how likely certain things are to happen. Catastrophic events feel like very real threats, while we tend to forget about the small but chronic risks that become more likely over time.
因为媒体报道，如电视新闻或报纸的报道，我们很难知道某件事发生的可能性。灾难性事件的确是很大的威胁，但是我们常常忘记一些细小慢性的风险，这些风险往往随着时间而增加。
We do. Chronic means something that lasts for a long time.So for example, what if there was a cigarette that killed you as soon as you smoked it?Nobody would do that, would they?
没错。慢性是指持续很长时间。例如，如果香烟一吸入就会致死你还会抽吗？肯定没有人会去吸烟了，不是吗？
No, they wouldn’t.
是的。
But plenty of people are happy to smoke for years, and put off worrying about the health risks for the future.
但是很多人常年吸烟，乐在其中，把对健康问题的担忧留在了以后。
Yes, that’s a good point, Finn! People feel they are in control of risks that stretch over time. You know, they think, ’I could stop tomorrow’ or ’I could smoke less’.But what about people who enjoy taking big risks – those thrill seekers out there?
你说的很有道理。人们自认为可以掌控长期的风险。他们经常想“我明天就戒烟”或“我会少抽一些。”。但是喜欢冒险、寻求刺激的人是怎么样的呢？
People who enjoy extreme sports actually seek out danger – it gives them extreme pleasure! So let’s listen to Karina Hollekim from Norway. She’s a base jumper – that’s a person with a parachute who leaps from tall buildings or cliffs – and she’s talking about what she feels about risk.
喜欢极限运动的人实际上是寻求危险，这给予他们极大的快乐。我们听听挪威的Karina Hollekim的看法。她喜欢高空跳伞，也就是说携带降落伞从高楼或悬崖跳下。她会讲述她对风险的看法。
You need to measure the pleasure.Is it going to be worth it for you?So if the risk is really high, it means that the pleasure needs to be equally high. Or hopefully even higher… You can’t measure it on a scale or anything. For me, it’s a stomach feeling. It’s the value within me, and I’m the only one who can tell what value it has to me.
你需要估量你的愉悦感。是否值得你去做？如果危险性很高，那么它给你带来的快乐也应该同样多。或者更多一些，这是理想状态。但是你无法用一个标准去衡量它。对我来说，就是靠直觉。我的内心在衡量这样做值不值得。也只有我自己能告诉自己这样做的价值。
Yes. It must be a magical feeling to step off a cliff, mustn’t it, Finn?
从悬崖上跳下去一定是一种很奇妙的感觉，不是吗？
’It’s a stomach feeling’, you know – my stomach would definitely be saying, ’oh no, no, no!’So why not change the subject and give me the answer to today’s quiz question?
“直觉上就很兴奋”，那我的直觉一定是告诉我“千万不要这样做，不要，不要！”。不要讲这个话题了，我们来看今天问题的答案吧？
I asked: What are your chances of being knocked off your bicycle and killed during a one-mile journeyand this is the same as your chances of winning the national lottery? So is it… a) 1 in 4 million? b) 1 in 14 million? Or c) 1 in 400 million?
我的问题是：一英里的路程中你从自行车上摔下来致死的可能性和你中彩票的可能性一样大。那么这个概率究竟有多大呢？a)四百万分之一?b) 一千四百万分之一?还是 c) 四亿分之一?
I said c) 1 in 400 million.
我选的是c) 四亿分之一。
Yes. And you were wrong, Finn.
好吧，你回答错了。
Alright. Really? OK.
啊？真的吗？好吧。
Yes. The odds are actually 1 in 14 million. You are as likely to win the national lottery from a single ticket as you are to be knocked off your bicycle and killed during a one-mile journey.This statistic comes from the Professor David Spiegelhalter, who is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge in the UK. So I think he really knows his stuff.
这个概率实际上是一千四百万分之一。你买一张国家彩票就中奖的可能性和你从自行车上摔下来致死的可能性一样大。这一数据来自David Spiegelhalter教授，他是英国剑桥大学统计实验室研究公众对风险的理解的教授。我想他对这方面应该很了解。
That’s a very long title, yes, I’m sure he does.
职称这么长，我肯定他很了解。
Yeah.
没错。
So let’s hear today’s words again, Alice?
我们再来听一下今天的单词吧？
Here they are:
今天听到的单词有：
phobia
恐惧症
risk
风险
probability
可能性
gut reaction
本能反应
catastrophic
灾难性的
media coverage
媒体报道
chronic
慢性的
thrill seekers
寻求刺激的人
base jumper
定点跳伞者
And that brings us to the end of today’s 6 Minute English. We hope you were thrilled by today’s programme.Please join us again soon.
今天的六分钟英语就到这里。希望你喜欢今天的节目。我们下次再会。
Bye.
再见。