国际英语新闻:Asian economies faced with key challenges in next decade: Australian economist

CANBERRA, Nov. 6 (Xinhua) -- Asian economies are confronted with challenges in four key areas if they want to maintain growth in the next decade, a senior economist from the Australian Treasury warned on Wednesday.

David Gruen, executive director of the Treasury's Macroeconomic Group, made the remark at an economic forum entitled "Asia's Economic Challenges and Policy Choices" held by the Australian National University (ANU)'s East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

Gruen said in the past decade, Asia has accounted for over half of the world's economic growth. Even if excluding the advanced economies of Asia, the contribution of emerging Asia was almost a half.

Australian Treasury predicted that Asia will continue to contribute half of the world's economic growth at least in the coming decade and possibly beyond. But the growth will finally slow down to reflect the factors of slowing population growth and the maturing of technological catch-up, Gruen said.

To achieve the Phase 1 scenario, Asian economies have to overcome a number of substantial challenges.

"The first is ensuing trade remains inclusive and open," he said.

The export-led growth model has served Asia's development well because, among others, technological transfer coming from trade helps drive productivity growth.

"In economies of scale, exports can help growth. The import of world-class institutions and ideas from integrating with the rest of the world is crucial," he said.

Singapore, which has been consistently open to trade for decades, is a chronicle example of how economy with few natural endowment can become rich as part of the global trading network.

Future trade arrangement needs to be inclusive. Both the RCEP ( Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) and the TPP (Trans- Pacific Partnership) will go towards promoting a rule-based trading partnership in the region.

TPP is the economic centerpiece of U.S. rebalance to Asia but yet to include some of the big regional players such as China, India and Indonesia. Meanwhile, RCEP is less ambitious but potentially more inclusive.

The challenge for the region is to ensure that over time TPP and RCEP will converge or walk towards an open regional market, Gruen said.

The second challenge is dealing with demographic challenges. Asia's most significant endowment is its labor. But the picture is different in different parts of Asia.

China, Japan and South Korea are already faced with an aging population which put pressure on their pension systems, labor markets and health care.

India and Indonesia have one of the youngest demographic profiles in the world. But if these young people can not find employment and earn satisfactory income, they can become sources of social and political instability.