美国人心里 2010年存在什么挑战?

Every era of history is defined by its signature challenge. For the first half of the 20th century, it was what to do about German and Japanese militarism; for the second half, it was the struggle against the Soviet Union.
每个时代都是由其标志性的挑战界定的。20世纪上半叶，这种挑战是如何应对德国和日本的军国主义；下半叶则是对付前苏联。
　　
But today and for the foreseeable future, the principal threat to world order is not from some aggressive great power. Instead, we must contend with a host of global phenomena: the spread of nuclear materials and weapons, terrorism, pandemic disease, climate change and economic protectionism.
但在当前及可预见的未来，世界秩序面临的主要威胁并非来自某个侵略性大国。相反，我们必须对付众多全球性现象：核材料与核武器的扩散，恐怖主义，大范围流行病，气候变化以及经济保护主义。
　　
No country, not even the US, can face these challenges alone. The world is simply too large and too complex to control. By their nature, these challenges are best met by collective effort. Decisions to opt out of global arrangements (or an inability to opt in, as we see in the case of governments too weak to combat terrorists who set up shop on their territory) can have repercussions far beyond a country's borders.
没有一个国家能单独面对这些挑战，即使是美国也不行。这个世界实在太大、太复杂，令人无法掌控。这些挑战的性质决定了，应对它们的最佳方式是集体努力。一国决定不参与全球安排（或无力参与其中，比如有些政府太过软弱，无力抗击在其领土上建立地盘的恐怖分子），其影响的波及面可能远远超出该国国界。
　　
But to acknowledge that we are all multilateralists now (or at least need to be) is only to start the conversation. Multilateralism is not one thing but many. The issue takes on a new urgency in the aftermath of the recent Copenhagen conference, which brought together representatives of 193 governments in an unsuccessful effort to reach a formal, binding and comprehensive accord. Whatever its consequences for climate change, Copenhagen is but the most recent reminder that classic multilateralism is increasingly difficult to achieve.
不过，承认我们现在都是（或者至少有必要成为）多边主义者，只是对话的开始。多边主义不是一件而是许多事情。不久前举行的哥本哈根会议结束后，这一问题呈现出新的紧迫性。会议召集了193个政府的代表，试图达成一项有约束力的广泛正式协议，但终告失败。无论哥本哈根对气候变化的影响如何，它都只不过是最新的一记提醒：经典的多边主义已越来越难以实现。
　　
This same reality also helps to account for the world's inability to agree to a new global trade accord. Launched in Qatar nearly a decade ago, the Doha round of negotiations has stalled. There are simply too many participants, too many contentious issues and too many domestic political concerns to discuss.
同样的现实也有助于解释，各国为何无法就新的全球贸易协定达成共识。近10年前在卡塔尔启动的多哈回合谈判已经搁置。谈判参与方、有争议的问题和有待讨论的国内政治关切实在是太多了。
　　
This problem also explains the near-total irrelevance of the United Nations General Assembly. "One man, one vote" may provide a sound basis for domestic politics, but on a global scale democracy (or, more precisely, democratic multilateralism) is a prescription for doing nothing. It is not simply the large number of participants but the fact that it makes little sense to give countries with minuscule populations and economies equal standing with, say, China or the US.
这一问题也可以解释，联合国大会为什么会近乎被边缘化。“一人一票”或许可以为一国内政打下良好基础，但从全球范围看，民主（或者更确切地说是民主多边主义）才是无作为的处方。问题不仅在于要有大量的参与方，还在于这样一个事实：赋予人口小国与中国或美国等经济体同等重要的地位，是不合理的。