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美国人心里 2010年存在什么挑战?
2010-01-13来源:和谐英语
The UN's founders predicted as much when they created the Security Council. The idea was to establish an elite body to tackle the world's most important issues. The problem is that the composition of the Security Council reflects what the world looked like after the second world war. That world is now more than 60 years old. Missing from the ranks of permanent members are India, Japan, Germany, Brazil and representatives of a more integrated Europe.
联合国的创始人在设立安理会时就预见了这些问题。他们的想法是通过成立一个精英团体来解决世界上最重要的问题。问题在于，安理会的组成反映的是二战后的世界面貌，距今已有60年。常任理事国的队伍中，漏掉了印度、日本、德国、巴西以及一个更加一体化的欧洲的代表。
It was this weakness (along with the inability to agree on the make-up of a reformed Security Council) that in part led to the creation of the Group of Seven and the trilateral process in the 1970s. Japan and the European Commission gained a seat at this important table. Yet over the decades, the G7 also proved inadequate, as it left out such critical countries as China and India. Hence the emergence of the Group of 20 in the midst of the global financial crisis and the Major Economies Forum as concerns over climate change mounted.
正是这一缺陷（以及无法就改革后安理会的组成达成共识）在一定程度上促成了上世纪70年代七国集团(G7)及三边进程的创立。日本和欧洲委员会在这个重要组织中获得了一席之地。但几十年来的事实证明，七国集团也不足以解决问题，因为它漏掉了像中国和印度这样的关键国家。于是，20国集团(G20)在全球金融危机期间兴起，主要经济体论坛也随着人们对气候变化担忧加剧而浮出水面。
It is too soon to judge the impact of these latest versions of elite multilateralism. In the meantime, we are seeing the emergence of multiple innovations. One is regionalism. The proliferation of bilateral and regional trade pacts (most recently in Asia) is in part a reaction to the failure to conclude a global trade accord. Such arrangements are inferior - they do not, for example, normally deal with subsidies, much less cover all products and services. They can also have the perverse effect of retarding trade by discriminating against non-members. But some trade expansion is preferable to none.
要判断这些精英多边主义最新版本的影响，现在还为时尚早。与此同时，我们看到多种多样的创新正在形成。其中之一是地区主义。双边及地区贸易协议的大量涌现（最近在亚洲），在一定程度上是对全球贸易协议无法达成做出的回应。此类安排并非最佳办法，比如它们通常不涉及补贴问题，更不会涵盖所有的产品与服务。它们还可能由于歧视非成员国而产生阻碍贸易的不利影响，但某种程度的贸易扩张总好过原地踏步。
A second alternative is functional multilateralism - coalitions of the willing and relevant. A global accord on climate will prove elusive for some time to come. But that need not translate into international inaction. A useful step would be to conclude a global pact to discourage the cutting down and burning of forests, something that accounts for a fifth of the world's carbon output. Copenhagen made some limited progress here, but more needs to be done to assist such countries as Brazil and Indonesia.
第二种可选方案是功能性多边主义——由有意愿的相关方结成同盟。未来一段时间，达成全球性的气候协议将会相当困难，但这并不意味着国际社会只能不作为。一项有益的举措将是，达成一项全球协定，阻止砍伐和焚烧森林——它所产生的碳排放占全球总量的五分之一。在这方面，哥本哈根取得了有限进展，但有必要采取更多行动，帮助像巴西和印尼这样的国家。
Yet another alternative might be described as informal multilateralism. In many cases it will prove impossible to negotiate international accords that will be approved by national parliaments. Instead, governments would sign up to implementing, as best they can, a series of measures consistent with agreed-upon international norms. We are most likely to see this in the financial realm, where setting standards for the capital requirements of banks, accounting systems and credit ratings would facilitate global economic growth.
还有一种可选方案或许可以表述为非正式多边主义。在很多情况下，不可能通过谈判达成将获得各国国会批准的国际协议。各国政府倒是可以签署一项这样的协议：承诺尽其所能实施一系列与一致认可的国际准则相符的措施。我们最有可能在金融领域看到这种做法，制定银行资本金要求、会计制度和信用评级方面的标准，将促进全球经济复苏。
None of this - not elitism or regionalism or functionalism or informalism - is a panacea. Such collective action is invariably less inclusive, less comprehensive and less predictable than formal global accords. It can suffer from a lack of legitimacy. But it is doable and desirable, and can lead to or complement classic multilateralism. Multilateralism in the 21st century is, like the century itself, likely to be more fluid and, at times, messy than what we are used to.
以上没有哪一种——无论是精英主义、地区主义，还是功能主义或非正式主义——是万灵药。在参与度、综合性和可预见性方面，此类集体行动总是不如正式的全球协定，并可能因为缺乏合法性而举步维艰。但它行得通，也值得做，它可以促成经典多边主义，或对其形成补充。21世纪的多边主义与这个世纪本身一样，可能会比我们所习惯的情形更加多变甚至有时会更加混乱。
The writer is president of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of War of Necessity, War of Choice: A Memoir of Two Iraq Wars.
作者是美国对外关系委员会主席，着有《必要的战争，选择的战争：两场伊拉克战争纪事》
联合国的创始人在设立安理会时就预见了这些问题。他们的想法是通过成立一个精英团体来解决世界上最重要的问题。问题在于，安理会的组成反映的是二战后的世界面貌，距今已有60年。常任理事国的队伍中，漏掉了印度、日本、德国、巴西以及一个更加一体化的欧洲的代表。
It was this weakness (along with the inability to agree on the make-up of a reformed Security Council) that in part led to the creation of the Group of Seven and the trilateral process in the 1970s. Japan and the European Commission gained a seat at this important table. Yet over the decades, the G7 also proved inadequate, as it left out such critical countries as China and India. Hence the emergence of the Group of 20 in the midst of the global financial crisis and the Major Economies Forum as concerns over climate change mounted.
正是这一缺陷（以及无法就改革后安理会的组成达成共识）在一定程度上促成了上世纪70年代七国集团(G7)及三边进程的创立。日本和欧洲委员会在这个重要组织中获得了一席之地。但几十年来的事实证明，七国集团也不足以解决问题，因为它漏掉了像中国和印度这样的关键国家。于是，20国集团(G20)在全球金融危机期间兴起，主要经济体论坛也随着人们对气候变化担忧加剧而浮出水面。
It is too soon to judge the impact of these latest versions of elite multilateralism. In the meantime, we are seeing the emergence of multiple innovations. One is regionalism. The proliferation of bilateral and regional trade pacts (most recently in Asia) is in part a reaction to the failure to conclude a global trade accord. Such arrangements are inferior - they do not, for example, normally deal with subsidies, much less cover all products and services. They can also have the perverse effect of retarding trade by discriminating against non-members. But some trade expansion is preferable to none.
要判断这些精英多边主义最新版本的影响，现在还为时尚早。与此同时，我们看到多种多样的创新正在形成。其中之一是地区主义。双边及地区贸易协议的大量涌现（最近在亚洲），在一定程度上是对全球贸易协议无法达成做出的回应。此类安排并非最佳办法，比如它们通常不涉及补贴问题，更不会涵盖所有的产品与服务。它们还可能由于歧视非成员国而产生阻碍贸易的不利影响，但某种程度的贸易扩张总好过原地踏步。
A second alternative is functional multilateralism - coalitions of the willing and relevant. A global accord on climate will prove elusive for some time to come. But that need not translate into international inaction. A useful step would be to conclude a global pact to discourage the cutting down and burning of forests, something that accounts for a fifth of the world's carbon output. Copenhagen made some limited progress here, but more needs to be done to assist such countries as Brazil and Indonesia.
第二种可选方案是功能性多边主义——由有意愿的相关方结成同盟。未来一段时间，达成全球性的气候协议将会相当困难，但这并不意味着国际社会只能不作为。一项有益的举措将是，达成一项全球协定，阻止砍伐和焚烧森林——它所产生的碳排放占全球总量的五分之一。在这方面，哥本哈根取得了有限进展，但有必要采取更多行动，帮助像巴西和印尼这样的国家。
Yet another alternative might be described as informal multilateralism. In many cases it will prove impossible to negotiate international accords that will be approved by national parliaments. Instead, governments would sign up to implementing, as best they can, a series of measures consistent with agreed-upon international norms. We are most likely to see this in the financial realm, where setting standards for the capital requirements of banks, accounting systems and credit ratings would facilitate global economic growth.
还有一种可选方案或许可以表述为非正式多边主义。在很多情况下，不可能通过谈判达成将获得各国国会批准的国际协议。各国政府倒是可以签署一项这样的协议：承诺尽其所能实施一系列与一致认可的国际准则相符的措施。我们最有可能在金融领域看到这种做法，制定银行资本金要求、会计制度和信用评级方面的标准，将促进全球经济复苏。
None of this - not elitism or regionalism or functionalism or informalism - is a panacea. Such collective action is invariably less inclusive, less comprehensive and less predictable than formal global accords. It can suffer from a lack of legitimacy. But it is doable and desirable, and can lead to or complement classic multilateralism. Multilateralism in the 21st century is, like the century itself, likely to be more fluid and, at times, messy than what we are used to.
以上没有哪一种——无论是精英主义、地区主义，还是功能主义或非正式主义——是万灵药。在参与度、综合性和可预见性方面，此类集体行动总是不如正式的全球协定，并可能因为缺乏合法性而举步维艰。但它行得通，也值得做，它可以促成经典多边主义，或对其形成补充。21世纪的多边主义与这个世纪本身一样，可能会比我们所习惯的情形更加多变甚至有时会更加混乱。
The writer is president of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of War of Necessity, War of Choice: A Memoir of Two Iraq Wars.
作者是美国对外关系委员会主席，着有《必要的战争，选择的战争：两场伊拉克战争纪事》
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