勒布朗该如何才能加盟火箭？别急！这儿有妙招

If LeBron James’ goal this offseason is to join the team that gives him the best chance of knocking off Golden State after back-to-back losses to the Warriors in the NBA Finals, his best hope may be joining the Houston Rockets -- who took the Warriors the distance in this year’s conference finals.

在NBA总决赛上连续挑战勇士失利后，如果这个休赛期勒布朗.詹姆斯的目标是加盟一支可以使自己最有可能挑落金州勇士的球队，也许他最大的希望是加盟休斯顿火箭—那支在今年半决赛中最接近击败勇士的球队。

Because Houston is already too close to the salary cap to sign James outright before even dealing with new contracts for free agents Chris Paul and Clint Capela, getting LeBron to Houston would almost certainly require a trade. Is such a scenario possible? Let’s look at how it might happen.

由于火箭队处理好自由球员克里斯.保罗和克林特.卡佩拉的新合同后，总工资已经非常接近工资帽了，这样是无法签约詹姆斯的，要想让勒布朗来休斯顿肯定需要一场交易。这样的交易方案可能吗？让我们瞧瞧这事儿该如何操作？

Step 1: James opts in for 2018-19

方案一：利用詹姆斯有2018-19年球员选项权

If LeBron wants to play for the Rockets, it would probably be necessary for him to go the same route Paul did a year ago: passing on free agency to set up a trade to Houston. Why? Because even if the Rockets were to pull off a sign-and-trade deal for James as a maximum-salary free agent, doing so would hard-cap them at the luxury-tax apron, estimated at $128 million for next season.

如果勒布朗想要往休斯顿打球，对他来说，选择一年前保罗走过的老路是可行且必要的：通过自由市场交易到休斯顿。为什么说这样可行呢？因为即使火箭队计划通过签约交易得到詹姆斯这样工资最高的自由球员，他们也会承受工资帽带来的巨额奢侈税，下个赛季估计总工资将达到1.28亿美元。

Max salaries for James and Paul (an unrestricted free agent), plus James Harden, would swallow up more than $100 million of that total. Add in a max salary for Capela (a restricted free agent) and Houston would already be pushing the apron, with 10 roster spots still left to fill.

詹姆斯和保罗（非限制性自由球员），再加上詹姆斯.哈登，这三个人的顶薪就占据了总工资超过一亿的薪资。算上卡佩拉的顶薪（限制性球员），休斯顿已经超过了工资帽，还有球员名单上的10个人也需要填满。

So unless James or Paul is willing to take a massive pay cut -- unlikely given their leadership roles in the National Basketball Players Association (Paul is president, James is first vice president) -- LeBron opting in is the way to go. A trade would allow the Rockets to re-sign any of their free agents, including Capela, Paul and also starting small forward Trevor Ariza, with new owner Tilman Fertitta’s willingness to pay a giant luxury-tax bill the main issue from Houston’s standpoint.

因此，除非詹姆斯或者保罗愿意大幅度降薪—这也不像是球员工会成员的角色（保落是主席，詹姆斯为第一副主席）--勒布朗的选择是这条方案行的通的关键。一次交易会让火箭重新签下他们自由球员中的任何一位，包括卡佩拉、保罗以及接近签下特雷沃.阿里扎。那就是站在火箭的立场，新老板蒂尔曼.弗提塔愿意缴纳奢侈税来为这件事买单。

Unlike Paul last season, James wouldn’t have to sacrifice much in the way of salary to do so. In fact, his $35.6 million player option is actually worth slightly more than the current max projection for 2018-19 ($35.35 million). And six months after a trade (mid-January, in this scenario), LeBron would be eligible to sign a max extension with the Rockets, meaning he can get to Houston and sign a long-term contract without having to wait until the summer of 2019.

詹姆斯不会像上赛季的保罗一样，愿意通过牺牲降薪来促成这件事儿。实际上，他3560万美元的球员选项比2018-19本赛季最高预测的（3535万美元）略高。交易六个月后（一月中旬，在此情况下），勒布朗有资格与休斯顿火箭队签下一份最长的延期约，也就是说，他可以到休斯顿来签下一份长约，而不需要等到2019年赛季。

The trick here would be finding a workable trade between the Rockets and Cavaliers.

其中的诀窍就是找到火箭与克利夫兰的可行性交易方案。

Step 2: Searching for an Anderson taker

方案二：找到安德森的替代下家

Ideally, Houston would match James’ salary in large part with the $20.4 million owed Ryan Anderson in 2018-19. However, with two years left on Anderson’s contract (he’ll make $21.3 million in 2019-20) and with him falling largely out of the Rockets’ playoff rotation, that’s a tough sell. The New York Knicks’ unwillingness to take back Anderson was a key factor in Houston’s pursuit of Carmelo Anthony falling short of the goal line last summer.

理想的是，休斯顿会以莱恩.安德森2018-19赛季的2040万美元薪资匹配詹姆斯的大部分薪水。然而，安德森剩下的两年合同（2130万美元），极大的限制了火箭季后赛的球员轮转，这笔交易很难达成。去年夏天，火箭在追求卡梅隆.安东尼接近目标却未果的关键因素就是纽约尼克斯不愿接接手安德森。

Dealing James for a package centered on Anderson would likely push Cleveland deep into the luxury tax next season, so that idea is probably a nonstarter. Any trade involving Anderson would require a third team with cap space to take on his contract in exchange for future picks, allowing the Cavaliers to cut their payroll. Alas, Houston’s first-rounders the next few seasons would have limited value with LeBron on the roster, and there will be more teams looking to shed salary than add it. So it would probably take at least two and maybe three first-rounders to persuade another team to take on Anderson -- without compensating Cleveland.

围绕以安德森为中心，打包交易詹姆斯可能会把下赛季的克利夫兰推向缴纳奢侈税的边缘，所以这个法子可能指望不上。涉及到安德森的任何交易都需要第三方球队以薪资帽的空间来吃下这样的合同换取选秀权，并成为占据总工资的一部分。哎，这样的话，如果得到勒布朗，休斯顿下几个赛季球员名单上首轮选秀权的价值将很有限，也许会有更多球队为了减少薪水开资而看上这样的机会。因此，拿出至少两个或者可能三个首轮选秀权才可能说服另一支球队愿意接手安德森—并非补偿给克利夫兰。

Instead, the Rockets may have to live with Anderson on their books and find another trade package for James.

反之，火箭可能不得不承受安德森在这笔账簿上的债务而找到另一种通过打包交易，得到詹姆斯的方案。

Step 3: Building a LeBron trade without Anderson

方案三：达成不以安德森为中心而得到勒布朗的交易方案

Matching James’ salary without involving Anderson is possible but more painful for Houston, which would have to give up key parts in return. Assuming the Rockets are limited to players currently under contract -- sign-and-trade rules would also be challenging on the Cavs’ end of the deal -- Houston would have to trade basically everyone besides Harden and Anderson.

匹配詹姆斯的薪水而不涉及到安德森的交易方案存在着可能，但对休斯顿来说，这未免会很痛。因为，这笔交易中，休斯顿不得不放弃其中有分量的回报。假设当前在合同下，火箭球员受限制—签约规则会冒着克利夫兰终止这笔交易的风险—除了哈登和安德森休斯顿，将不得不交易其中的任何一个人。

The Rockets would be required to send out at least $28.4 million in matching salary after the end of the July moratorium, and a package of Eric Gordon, Aaron Jackson, Nene, Chinanu Onuaku, PJ Tucker and Zhou Qi would add up to $29.4 million. (Houston would have to guarantee the 2018-19 salaries of Jackson and Zhou first, because otherwise their salaries would not count for trade purposes.)

七月份的延期偿还结束后，火箭需要送出2840万美元的匹配薪资，埃里克.戈登、阿龙.杰克逊、内内、齐纳努.欧努阿库，P.J.塔克和周琦打包加起来总共2940万美元。（前提是，休斯顿得保证2018-19赛季杰克逊和周琦的工资到位，因为他们薪水不计算在交易目标中。）

This version of the trade sends out two of the Rockets’ top four players in minutes played in the playoffs, which would hurt their depth. It would also hamper their 3-point shooting; Gordon and Tucker combined for 333 triples during the regular season, more than twice as many as LeBron’s career-high 149. Still, those are sacrifices Houston GM Daryl Morey would happily make, just as he did giving up several contributors to land Paul last summer.

这个交易版本送出了火箭队在季后赛几分钟中内，四名顶级球员中表现抢眼的其中两位，这也许会伤到他们的板凳深度。这样做也削弱了他们的三分投射能力；本赛季常规赛中，戈登和塔克合计投中了333个三分，比詹姆斯职业生涯的149个三分的两倍还要多。然而，对于这些牺牲，火箭总经理莫雷乐于承受，正如去年夏季，为了笼络到保罗，放弃了几个有价值的球员一样。

After all, James would slide into Tucker’s role as starting power forward, and the Rockets would have their taxpayer midlevel exception (estimated at $5.3 million) to sign a backup shooting guard to replace Gordon. And, again, they could bring back all of their free agents.

毕竟，詹姆斯将担任塔克的首发大前锋位置，火箭将利用手中的纳税人中产特里（估计530万美元）签下一个替补得分后卫替代戈登。那么，这样的话，他们就会签下所有的自由球员。

The real question is whether Cleveland would sign off. Adding $29 million in payroll would put the Cavaliers some $16 million into the projected luxury tax for a team unlikely to seriously contend without James. So Cleveland would probably look to flip Gordon and Tucker, who should both have positive trade value because of reasonable contracts.

然而，问题是克利夫兰是否会签下这样的合同。没有了詹姆斯，战斗力锐减，何况在总工资上平添2900万美元，这样会让克利夫兰计划的奢侈税上再入账1600万美元，这是不可能的。因此，大概率上来说，克利夫兰会盯上戈登和塔克，加上合理的合同，两个人都有积极的交易价值。

If the Cavaliers can’t easily shed payroll elsewhere, they could probably maneuver their way under the tax line by using the stretch provision. Waiving and stretching George Hill, for example, would save Cleveland $14 million in 2018-19 because Hill’s 2019-20 salary is guaranteed for just $1 million.

如果克利夫兰无论在哪儿都不能轻松甩掉这些工资，他们很可能通过使用延伸条款在奢侈税线下进行操作。譬如说，在2018-19赛季，放弃签约乔治希尔将为他们省下1400万美元的工资，因为乔治希2019-20赛季的薪水保证金就有100万美元。

The Cavs would surely want a couple of future first-rounders for their trouble, after getting two of them, plus a swap option and two second-round picks, for signing-and-trading James to the Miami Heat in 2010 -- a move that did not force Cleveland to take on any salary in return. (A caution to Cavaliers fans: Don’t expect a better return if James is traded again, since first-round picks are valued much more highly now than they were in 2010.)

克利夫兰肯定想要两个未来的首轮选秀权，以弥补詹姆斯离开带来的烦恼。手握这两个选秀权，再加上一个交换选项和2010年迈阿密签约詹姆斯换来的两个次轮选秀权-这一举措会避免克利夫兰被迫支付任何薪资带来的奢侈税。（对克利夫兰球迷的小提醒：如果詹姆斯再次得到交易，别指望会得到更好的回报，因为首轮选秀权的价值远高于2010年的选秀权价值。）

Ultimately, I think Cleveland would sign on in order to get the first-round picks and whatever can be had for Gordon and Tucker. While not ideal, that option is better than James leaving outright in free agency with the Cavaliers getting no draft compensation.

归根结底，我想，为了得到首轮选秀权、戈登以及塔克，无论怎样，克利夫兰会签下这个合同。不尽人意的是，那样的选择要比詹姆斯以自由身离开而克利夫兰却什么补偿也得不到要强的多。

Of course, there are many important variables before the two teams could even begin talking trade. First and most critically, LeBron has to decide Houston is the next place he’s taking his talents, and to do so before the June 29 deadline to pick up his player option.

当然，在两队商议交易之前，有多种变数。首先，严苛的来说，勒布朗必须决定休斯顿是下一个将自己天赋带去的地方，且在6月29日交易截止日之前那样做，执行他的球员选项。

If that happens, however, there appears to be a path for James to join the Rockets.

然而，如果那些条件都成熟了，会有一条阳关大道促使詹姆斯加盟火箭。